Hello, hello. It's been a while since I've last posted. I'm going to start posting on a daily basis.
What will I be posting you ask? Well, my poker results for one. I've withdrew everything but 10 bucks on my stars account. I'm not sure if I'm good anymore, so I'm going to force myself to play low stakes, build a bankroll, and see if I'm a winner. I'll be playing cash and tournaments, but mainly tournaments. At the end of each day, or two days I'll post my results. Graphs, from HEM, anything I can think off.
Along with that, I have slightly ballooned in weight again. Starting Thursday I'm going to seriously concentrate on getting healthy, getting in shape, and looking good. I'll post those updates as well.
With that, back to pokerz!
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Sunday, September 12, 2010
ADDED GAMES!
Denver +3, -110 @ Jacksonville
Dallas @ Washington +3.5, -120
San Diego @ Kansas City +4.5, -110
Dallas @ Washington +3.5, -120
San Diego @ Kansas City +4.5, -110
NFL PLAYS!
Ravens/Jets under 35.5 pts
Browns/Bucs over 37 pts
Packers/Iggles over 47.5 pts
SF 49ers -3 vs Seattle
Browns/Bucs over 37 pts
Packers/Iggles over 47.5 pts
SF 49ers -3 vs Seattle
Monday, August 30, 2010
2010 WASHINGTON REDSKINS
In the past five seasons the Washington Redskins have gone 4-12, 8-8, 9-7, 5-11, and 10-6 respectively. They have gone through two coaches. One a hall of fame coach who was past his prime in Joe Gibbs and a neophyte who was in over his head in Jim Zorn. What has changed since that point? Well for one, Gibbs has been retired for two years and Zorn is back to coaching quarterbacks in Baltimore. The question is, will they be able to win more then 7.5 games. Yes, they will.
What is the main reason for change you ask, well I will tell you, Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen. Gone are the days of free wheeling and dealing of what I like to affectionately call Synerrato. Dan Snyder and Vinney Cerrato will no longer bring in high priced free agents who are past their prime or who are over paid malcontents. No more Adam Archuleta or Jeff George. Gone are the days of bringing in Bruce Smith, Mark Carrier, and Deon Sanders. No more winning the off season, they will now start taking down the regular season. The Washington Redskins only have one last piece of that previous regime and even though he is an over paid malcontent he will make a major impact on the Redskins defense. I'm speaking of Albert Haynesworth. While he started off training camp the worst way he possibly could he has finally made up with the head coach. This is a good sign for fans of the team. While he may be a self serving jerk Albert even at his worst last year made a noticeable impact on the defense. He helped Andre Carter accomplish a career year with 11 sacks. He also had a noticeable effect on the Redskins run defense. When Albert was on the field the Redskins allowed a nice 3.1 yard per carry average. Without him they averaged over 5 yards per carry. Simply put, the Redskins are better with Albert on the field.
Along with the change of no longer having a in over his head head coach, they have also brought along a tremendous offensive coordinator in Kyle Shanahan. Last year while with the Houston Texans Kyle led Houston's offense to a number four ranking for total yards per game. They were also number one in the NFL in passing yards per game. I think we can all say this is the area where the Redskins need to improve in the most. Gone are the days of bad play calling of Jim Zorn. The Redskins now have professional coaches who know how to win super bowls in this era.
Along with the improvement in coaching the Redskins have dramatically improved the offensive talent. They have brought into two perennial pro bowl players in Donovan Mcnabb who has hall of fame worthy numbers, and offensive tackle beast Jamal Brown from the super bowl champions. With the addition of Artist Hicks to hold steady in the guard position and left tackle wunderkind Trent Williams they have revamped the two most glaring needs of the Redskins, offensive line and quarterback. Some naysayers will point to the lack of talent at wide receiver which they say will hinder the progress of the team. I disagree. I point to Donovan Mcnabb's past years with the likes of Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston. If the past has taught us anything it's that Donovan's favorite target is and almost always is the tight end. See Brent Celek and LJ Smith. Oddly enough that just so happens to be were the Redskins have the most offensive talent with Chris Cooley and past USC standout Fred Davis. I will also point to Mike Shanahan's success in the past with tight ends see Shannon Sharpe and Tony Scheffler. Overall the offense will be vastly improved compared to previous years.
This year the Redskins will be sporting a brand new 3-4 defense. Some have asked why they have made the switch since it appears their personnel fit more of the 4-3 variety. Jim Haslett has been quoted saying that on defense you build around your best player, and that happens to be Brian Orakpo. In last years defense the 4-3, Brian rushed the quarterback less the 500 times yet he still recorded 11 sacks. In this more attacking style of defense, they say his quarterback rushes should more then double that thus resulting in a higher sack total. It is also to be noted that during this preseason the Redskins have been a much more of a ball hawking team. This is something that Haslett has the team practicing every day. While they have been in the top 10 in defense the past couple years they have never created the turnovers that top teams seem to do. This will change under Haslett.
Moving onto special teams. Bye bye Antwan Randle-El. Gone are the days of your cloud of dust and move no where punt returns. I don't think I have ever seen so many fair catches in my entire life. In comes 5-8 speedster Brandon Banks. He already has a punt return for ta touchdown this preseason. The Redskins with Devin Thomas returning kick offs and Banks, Hall, Moss, platooning on the punt returns, special teams might actually be dangerous this year. The Redskins also for the first time in years now have a stable kicker in Grahm Gano. This is also a major improvement. So no more trading back and forth with the Cowboys.
Onto the final review of the schedule. I think you have 4 wins between St. Louis, Detroit, Jax, and Tampa Bay. While the rest of the schedule is tough considering it is the NFC east, if they can at least go .500 out of the final 12 games I think you have a 10-6 win team or 8-8 at worst.
The value is over 7.5 wins my friends.
What is the main reason for change you ask, well I will tell you, Mike Shanahan and Bruce Allen. Gone are the days of free wheeling and dealing of what I like to affectionately call Synerrato. Dan Snyder and Vinney Cerrato will no longer bring in high priced free agents who are past their prime or who are over paid malcontents. No more Adam Archuleta or Jeff George. Gone are the days of bringing in Bruce Smith, Mark Carrier, and Deon Sanders. No more winning the off season, they will now start taking down the regular season. The Washington Redskins only have one last piece of that previous regime and even though he is an over paid malcontent he will make a major impact on the Redskins defense. I'm speaking of Albert Haynesworth. While he started off training camp the worst way he possibly could he has finally made up with the head coach. This is a good sign for fans of the team. While he may be a self serving jerk Albert even at his worst last year made a noticeable impact on the defense. He helped Andre Carter accomplish a career year with 11 sacks. He also had a noticeable effect on the Redskins run defense. When Albert was on the field the Redskins allowed a nice 3.1 yard per carry average. Without him they averaged over 5 yards per carry. Simply put, the Redskins are better with Albert on the field.
Along with the change of no longer having a in over his head head coach, they have also brought along a tremendous offensive coordinator in Kyle Shanahan. Last year while with the Houston Texans Kyle led Houston's offense to a number four ranking for total yards per game. They were also number one in the NFL in passing yards per game. I think we can all say this is the area where the Redskins need to improve in the most. Gone are the days of bad play calling of Jim Zorn. The Redskins now have professional coaches who know how to win super bowls in this era.
Along with the improvement in coaching the Redskins have dramatically improved the offensive talent. They have brought into two perennial pro bowl players in Donovan Mcnabb who has hall of fame worthy numbers, and offensive tackle beast Jamal Brown from the super bowl champions. With the addition of Artist Hicks to hold steady in the guard position and left tackle wunderkind Trent Williams they have revamped the two most glaring needs of the Redskins, offensive line and quarterback. Some naysayers will point to the lack of talent at wide receiver which they say will hinder the progress of the team. I disagree. I point to Donovan Mcnabb's past years with the likes of Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston. If the past has taught us anything it's that Donovan's favorite target is and almost always is the tight end. See Brent Celek and LJ Smith. Oddly enough that just so happens to be were the Redskins have the most offensive talent with Chris Cooley and past USC standout Fred Davis. I will also point to Mike Shanahan's success in the past with tight ends see Shannon Sharpe and Tony Scheffler. Overall the offense will be vastly improved compared to previous years.
This year the Redskins will be sporting a brand new 3-4 defense. Some have asked why they have made the switch since it appears their personnel fit more of the 4-3 variety. Jim Haslett has been quoted saying that on defense you build around your best player, and that happens to be Brian Orakpo. In last years defense the 4-3, Brian rushed the quarterback less the 500 times yet he still recorded 11 sacks. In this more attacking style of defense, they say his quarterback rushes should more then double that thus resulting in a higher sack total. It is also to be noted that during this preseason the Redskins have been a much more of a ball hawking team. This is something that Haslett has the team practicing every day. While they have been in the top 10 in defense the past couple years they have never created the turnovers that top teams seem to do. This will change under Haslett.
Moving onto special teams. Bye bye Antwan Randle-El. Gone are the days of your cloud of dust and move no where punt returns. I don't think I have ever seen so many fair catches in my entire life. In comes 5-8 speedster Brandon Banks. He already has a punt return for ta touchdown this preseason. The Redskins with Devin Thomas returning kick offs and Banks, Hall, Moss, platooning on the punt returns, special teams might actually be dangerous this year. The Redskins also for the first time in years now have a stable kicker in Grahm Gano. This is also a major improvement. So no more trading back and forth with the Cowboys.
Onto the final review of the schedule. I think you have 4 wins between St. Louis, Detroit, Jax, and Tampa Bay. While the rest of the schedule is tough considering it is the NFC east, if they can at least go .500 out of the final 12 games I think you have a 10-6 win team or 8-8 at worst.
The value is over 7.5 wins my friends.
Friday, August 27, 2010
GIANTS VS RAVENS(-4)
On August 28th the New York football Giants head into M & T bank stadium to face off against the Baltimore Ravens. Kickoff occurs at 7:30PM est. As of right now the line is Ravens -4 (-110). Take the Ravens.
The first question to ask when evaluating a NFL preseason game is how long will the starters play. According to the Ravens website they plan to play some starters into the third quarter. Especially the offensive line. While the quarterback and others will at least play a half. This is good considering the strongest point the Giants have are their defensive line front four. How long the giants play will be another question all together. A lot of Giants starters are just coming off injuries. Their two starting guards are just coming off injuries. Manning is healing from a 3 inch gash he received two weeks ago. Manning is quoted in ESPN saying he will play but he just isn't sure for how long. I think it's safe to say that some of the important pieces of the Giants offensive unit will not be playing the standard amount of time compared to most NFL teams in a third preseason game. Another notable injury for the Giants is corner Arron Ross, he will also be out. It is also important to note the back ups. The edge goes to the Ravens. The difference between Marc Bulger and Troy Smith compared Sorgi and Bomar is huge. Bulger behind the Ravens offensive line facing the Giants second team will be more than effective.
Defensively at this moment the only risk the Ravens show at this point are their defensive backs. With Foxworth and Reed out it exposes a problem for them. Will Manning be able to take advantage of this? Yes, he will. The question is, how long will Manning play? I speculate not long. The ravens like to blitz. As shown when they played the Redskins, they send quite a few exotic blitzes during the preseason. Does Tom Coughlin want to risk his season on this game? I don't think so. Once Manning leaves the game Sorgi and Bomar won't be able to take advantage of this issue. They we will knocked down and hassled all game.
Will the Giants defense be able to stop the Ravens? I don't think so. In the Giants first game they allowed 16 points versus the Jets. The Jets do not have an effective offense. Clemens and O'Connell were pretty successful against the Giants D despite having two turnovers. They led the Jets to 3 field goals. It is safe to say Bulger and Smith will do better. Not to mention the Ravens offense is pretty dynamic with Ray Rice and the new additions of Anquan Bolden and Donte Stallworth. Joe Flacco should thrive in the first half.
Last thing one should consider before making a judgment on a game is the weather. Will the weather affect the outcome of the game? I don't think so. Tomorrow it should be nice and warm with clear skies. Great football weather.
Consider tomorrow a Ravens win. After the final gun the Ravens should take out the Giants by a reasonable amount. Make the bet gentleman and collect the cash.
The first question to ask when evaluating a NFL preseason game is how long will the starters play. According to the Ravens website they plan to play some starters into the third quarter. Especially the offensive line. While the quarterback and others will at least play a half. This is good considering the strongest point the Giants have are their defensive line front four. How long the giants play will be another question all together. A lot of Giants starters are just coming off injuries. Their two starting guards are just coming off injuries. Manning is healing from a 3 inch gash he received two weeks ago. Manning is quoted in ESPN saying he will play but he just isn't sure for how long. I think it's safe to say that some of the important pieces of the Giants offensive unit will not be playing the standard amount of time compared to most NFL teams in a third preseason game. Another notable injury for the Giants is corner Arron Ross, he will also be out. It is also important to note the back ups. The edge goes to the Ravens. The difference between Marc Bulger and Troy Smith compared Sorgi and Bomar is huge. Bulger behind the Ravens offensive line facing the Giants second team will be more than effective.
Defensively at this moment the only risk the Ravens show at this point are their defensive backs. With Foxworth and Reed out it exposes a problem for them. Will Manning be able to take advantage of this? Yes, he will. The question is, how long will Manning play? I speculate not long. The ravens like to blitz. As shown when they played the Redskins, they send quite a few exotic blitzes during the preseason. Does Tom Coughlin want to risk his season on this game? I don't think so. Once Manning leaves the game Sorgi and Bomar won't be able to take advantage of this issue. They we will knocked down and hassled all game.
Will the Giants defense be able to stop the Ravens? I don't think so. In the Giants first game they allowed 16 points versus the Jets. The Jets do not have an effective offense. Clemens and O'Connell were pretty successful against the Giants D despite having two turnovers. They led the Jets to 3 field goals. It is safe to say Bulger and Smith will do better. Not to mention the Ravens offense is pretty dynamic with Ray Rice and the new additions of Anquan Bolden and Donte Stallworth. Joe Flacco should thrive in the first half.
Last thing one should consider before making a judgment on a game is the weather. Will the weather affect the outcome of the game? I don't think so. Tomorrow it should be nice and warm with clear skies. Great football weather.
Consider tomorrow a Ravens win. After the final gun the Ravens should take out the Giants by a reasonable amount. Make the bet gentleman and collect the cash.
ANALYSIS YANKEES/CHISOX
On August 28th at 8:10 PM EST the bronx bombers head into the unfriendly confines of US Cellular field to face White Sox of Chicago. It will be a pitching match up between AJ Burnett and Freddy Garcia. It will be the fourth time these two teams have met up this year.
The total at the moment is over 10 even or you can take the under at -120. In three games this season vs the Chicago White Sox the New York Yankees have averaged eight runs a game. Scoring twelve, six, and six respectively. While the Chicago White Sox have scored three, seven, and four coming in at 4.6 runs a game. In the three years previous they have played seventeen games where they scored less then ten runs only 6 times. AJ Burnett pitched one of those meetings last year and only lasted 4.2 innings and the Yanks allowed fourteen runs that particular game. Garcia has pitched twice in the past two years against the Yanks lasting six innings in both games. The White Sox allowed six and eight runs respectively in those two games. Overall this year when Garcia and Burnett has taken the mound this season the over has come through twenty-seven out of forty-seven times for 57%. In the past ten games the yanks have gone over ten runs five times while the White Sox have gone over ten seven times. In both games Garcia pitched the game went over ten runs. In the one game Burnett pitched for the Yanks he played Seattle. He pitched 7 innings and the Yanks lost 6-0. I think it's fair to say Seattle has a fairly limited offense.
For the overall season both teams are up on the over. The Yankees are 63-57-7 and the Chicago White Sox are 63-59-4.
Another aspect to note is the park factor. Is US Cellular field a hitters ball park? ESPN says so. According to their park factor stat ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG)) they rank 5th out of all thirty MLB fields. They come in at 1.067.
Some will note that Alex Rodriquez is out. That is not a factor. In the past four games without Alex Rodriguez they have averaged 6.5 runs per game. They have done extremely well with out him this year.
Moving onto injuries. It should be noted that each team has key relievers on the DL. Marte and Aceves are out for the Yankees while pivotal relief pitchers Thorton and Putz are out for the White Sox. Both Thorton and Putz had eaten up some innings for the White Sox and are a key loss for the team.
Another positive note is that the weather is looking nice and good for tomorrow. With a high of 82 degrees and a low of 65 degrees. It is supposed to be sunny and clear with a high humidity. Good baseball weather. That bats will be warm. Hot and humid, the ball will travel far. They also don't call it the windy city for nothing.
Another positive note is that both teams are coming off a day off. They should be refreshed. In Yankee and White Sox games ten runs have been scored after a day off fifth-teen out of thirty games. While the stat is only 50% it is noted that both teams scoring is up on games after a day off.
After reviewing all of these statistics I think the clear play is the over. It should easily come through over 50% of the time. Everything points to it. Make the bet and collect the cash.
The total at the moment is over 10 even or you can take the under at -120. In three games this season vs the Chicago White Sox the New York Yankees have averaged eight runs a game. Scoring twelve, six, and six respectively. While the Chicago White Sox have scored three, seven, and four coming in at 4.6 runs a game. In the three years previous they have played seventeen games where they scored less then ten runs only 6 times. AJ Burnett pitched one of those meetings last year and only lasted 4.2 innings and the Yanks allowed fourteen runs that particular game. Garcia has pitched twice in the past two years against the Yanks lasting six innings in both games. The White Sox allowed six and eight runs respectively in those two games. Overall this year when Garcia and Burnett has taken the mound this season the over has come through twenty-seven out of forty-seven times for 57%. In the past ten games the yanks have gone over ten runs five times while the White Sox have gone over ten seven times. In both games Garcia pitched the game went over ten runs. In the one game Burnett pitched for the Yanks he played Seattle. He pitched 7 innings and the Yanks lost 6-0. I think it's fair to say Seattle has a fairly limited offense.
For the overall season both teams are up on the over. The Yankees are 63-57-7 and the Chicago White Sox are 63-59-4.
Another aspect to note is the park factor. Is US Cellular field a hitters ball park? ESPN says so. According to their park factor stat ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG)) they rank 5th out of all thirty MLB fields. They come in at 1.067.
Some will note that Alex Rodriquez is out. That is not a factor. In the past four games without Alex Rodriguez they have averaged 6.5 runs per game. They have done extremely well with out him this year.
Moving onto injuries. It should be noted that each team has key relievers on the DL. Marte and Aceves are out for the Yankees while pivotal relief pitchers Thorton and Putz are out for the White Sox. Both Thorton and Putz had eaten up some innings for the White Sox and are a key loss for the team.
Another positive note is that the weather is looking nice and good for tomorrow. With a high of 82 degrees and a low of 65 degrees. It is supposed to be sunny and clear with a high humidity. Good baseball weather. That bats will be warm. Hot and humid, the ball will travel far. They also don't call it the windy city for nothing.
Another positive note is that both teams are coming off a day off. They should be refreshed. In Yankee and White Sox games ten runs have been scored after a day off fifth-teen out of thirty games. While the stat is only 50% it is noted that both teams scoring is up on games after a day off.
After reviewing all of these statistics I think the clear play is the over. It should easily come through over 50% of the time. Everything points to it. Make the bet and collect the cash.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
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